Oil Spill Trajectory Modelling in Ice

Key Goals

The overall goal of this research project is to conduct research investigations in ice modelling and integrate the results into established industry oil spill trajectory models. This project will create or adapt an existing model for predicting ice movement in the marginal and pack ice zones under applied (forecast) wind and current forcing.  The model produced, will provide increased accuracy on the behaviour and movement of ice and is intended to be implementable in any of the leading oil fate and effects models. The outcome of this project will be an increase of the oil spill trajectory model’s accuracy in the presence of sea ice, along with an estimation of the uncertainties in these trajectories.  The model may also be applicable beyond the Arctic, for example in non-Arctic but ice-prone areas (e.g., Baltic and Caspian seas).